The mathematics of 10,000 disappearing Uighurs: refuting a refutation of Kadeer’s claim
“Almost 10,000 people attending the protests in Urumqi disappeared in one night,” Kadeer, president of the pro-independence World Uighur Congress, said. “Where did they go? If they died, where are their bodies? If they were detained, where are they being held?”
It was unclear where Kadeer got her numbers from.
Therefore I was quite excited to have found a first person’s description of Ms. Kadeer’s words. Xu Jingbo (徐静波), president of Asia News Service, posted an entry titled “my conversation with Kadeer: where did 10,000 people go?” (我与热比娅对话：1万人上哪了) in his blog. The following is a translation of the relevant section.
[Kadeer said] “The Uighurs went on streets to protest violent oppressions by the Chinese government. More than 10,000 people gathered in the downtown square. Suddenly, the lights were shut down in the square, and gun fire was heard. When the lights were switched back on, these 10,000 people were no where to be seen. No one knew if they were killed or detained.”
I found this hard to believe. So I said to her, in Chinese, that it would have taken at least 30,000 police or soldiers, and several thousand vehicles. If there were so many bodies on the street, it would have been even more difficult to mop up the scene. And that was just common sense. While the riot was going on, where could those 30,000 military members come from? …
Well, I think Mr. Xu’s refutation of Ms. Kadeer’s claim was highly misguided. Here are some simple calculations to show that it would take much less than 30,000 soldiers to snatch 10,000 people.
- The fundamental mistake made by Mr. Xu was to assume that it would take a massive number of soldiers to control 10,000 people. He must not be aware that PLA soldiers were well trained in witchcraft. See the photo of two broom riding flying soldiers below for proof.
- There is a well known spell “Impedimenta” that causes a person to freeze for about a minute. So assuming that each PLA soldier wizard can shout out that spell and point the wand to the target once per second, he would be able to freeze and control 50 subjects indefinitely by continuously casting the spell. (As for the remaining 10 seconds of a minute, he can drink water and take a break.)
- Therefore it would only take 200 PLA soldier wizards to keep the 10,000 people under control.
Oh, I should also state my admiration for Ms. Kadeer’s source. He/she must have be a very patient (to stand there for a whole night) and lucky (to not being picked up) witness.
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