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Jan 28

Intro: China’s accumulation of foreign currency is a hotly debated topic. Secretary of Treasury Geithner recently characterized it as “currency manipulation,” a legal term of art which allows the United States to take retaliatory measures.

I have written a paper that approaches this practice from a different angle, and recommends a different solution. The paper can be downloaded here http://ssrn.com/abstract=1332842

In this paper, I revisit the historic ideas surrounding miserliness and usury. I explain why these were economically pernicious activities, and why they were socially stigmatized or made illegal. The paper then moves onto international relations. I argue that China has been acting as miser and usurer on the world stage, at the expense of its own needs and global productivity. The world needs to balance spending vs. saving/investing/lending, and if there is too much of the latter then a rebalancing is inevitable. China has been doing too much of the latter, and the current economic crisis is that rebalancing.

The preferred solution to this problem is not trade protectionism, but rather increased trade. Over the past decade Americans have spent trillions of dollars on Chinese goods and services. This created employment in China and helped the country achieve its potential. The Chinese have responded by hoarding and lending that money. But a relationship where Americans spend and Chinese save and lend is not viable. Only when China takes the dollars Americans spend to employ Chinese, and uses it to employ Americans, will there be a sustainable relationship that can tap the productive potential of both countries. The United States has taken the first step and spent to establish this relationship. It is now China’s turn to spend, to advance that relationship.

I am interested in comments before the paper is published, so please do not hesitate to write me at the link above with any feedback.

Note: post title and content changed per the author’s request. -admin

Jan 26

Apparently, at least one of the columnists at the Washington Post reads this blog. Sebastian Mallaby, a veteran from the Economist and contributor to Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Prospect, the National Interest, the New York Times, Policy Review, Slate and the New Republic, and specializing in globalization, trade, investment trends, international development and economic policy, has apparently taken my advice for Tim Butcher to heart. Mr. Mallaby decided to follow up with Tim Geithner’s recent and much discussed comment about China’s  “manipulation of currency” and penned a piece that’s not safe for your computer if you are drinking coffee while reading it.
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Jul 30

(Letter) WTO Talks Collapsed

Written by: guest | Filed under:-guest-posts | Tags:, ,
1 Comment » newest

The Doha round of WTO talks in Geneva collapsed on Tuesday. It was the US vs. India and China, without being able to resolve their differences in farm products. In my view, it’s a good thing that the talks collapsed because the real benefits of the proposed deal to developing countries were minimal but risks were very high indeed. India pulled the plug, with China assisting.

What do you people think? Collapsed, is it good?