Fool’s Mountain: Blogging for China愚人節山：為中國博客

In 2002, the GDP of China was 10.2 trillion yuan, and the GDP of the US was 10.6 trillion US dollar.在2002年，中國國內生產總值為10.2萬億元，佔國內生產總值的美國一十零萬六點零億美元。 At the year-end exchange rate, China’s GDP was 11.7% of the US’.在今年年底匯率，中國的國內生產總值為11.7 ％的美國' 。 In 2007, the GDP of China was 24.7 trillion yuan, and the GDP of the US was 14.0 trillion US dollar.在2007年，中國國內生產總值為24.7萬億元，佔國內生產總值的美國為14.0萬億美元。 At the end-end exchange rate, China’s GDP was 24.0% of the US’.在年底結束的匯率，中國的國內生產總值24.0 ％的美國' 。

If we assume the relative paces of the underlining economic numbers remain the same, China will catch up the US in 2019. 如果我們假定的相對速度的強調經濟號碼保持不變，中國將趕上美國在2019年。 That’s scenario #1. The key underlining economic numbers are: nominal GDP growth and currency exchange rate. 這情景＃ 1 。突出的關鍵經濟數據有：名義GDP增長率和匯率。 Continue reading »繼續閱讀»

This post was submitted by JXie.此帖子提交了JXie 。

There is probably only one other issue capable of challenging the Olympics for national attention in China right now: the collapse of the housing market in China, led by Shenzhen. 也許只有一個其他問題能夠挑戰奧運會的國家的關注中國現在： 崩潰的房地產市場在中國，由深圳。 Home prices in Shenzhen grew very rapidly in recent years (on the order of 50%-100% ), and now appear to be falling just as quickly. 房屋價格在深圳成長非常迅速，近年來（關於秩序的50 ％ -100 ％ ） ，現在看來是屬於同樣快的速度。

But for some people, it might not be falling fast enough. 但對某些人來說，或許不是下降速度不夠快。 Two years ago, Zou Tao organized a campaign to fight rising prices in Shenzhen called “ 兩年前，鄒逃舉辦了一個運動，以打擊價格上漲在深圳所謂的“ Not Buy House 不買房子 ” (explanation courtesy of ESWN). “ （ 解釋禮貌ESWN ） 。 The government gave Zou Tao a firm “suggestion” that such mass campaigns were not welcome. 政府鄒逃了堅實的“建議” ，這種大規模運動，不歡迎。 Now, he’s back. 現在，他回來了。 Courtesy of Southern Metropolis, an article on his new campaign ( 禮貌南方都市報，一條關於他的新運動（ 连接 連接 ): ） ：

Zou Tao organized a “Not Buy House” campaign two years ago.鄒逃舉辦了一個“不買屋”運動兩年前。 He is now initiating a new campaign: “Housing For Ten Thousand - Group Buying Activity”.他現在是開始一個新系列： “住房10萬-集團購物活動” 。 He has already established a web platform at他已經成立了一個網絡平台上 www.zoutao.com , and online voting and registration is currently on-going.和網上投票和登記，目前正在進行。 Zou Tao says that he is doing this voluntarily without any compensation.鄒逃說，他是自願這樣做沒有任何賠償。 His goal is to use a group-buying model to push down housing prices, and let those without homes find a place to live.他的目標是利用一組購買模式，壓低房價，讓那些沒有家庭找到一個舒適的居住環境。

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Thanks to one our visitors (Traveler, Youzi, 游子), a debate about fundamental issues that divide many Chinese has been brought to our blog (see由於我們的訪客之一（旅行者， Youzi ，遊子） ，一個爭論的基本問題，許多中國鴻溝已提請我們的博客（見 comment in earlier thread在以前的評論線程 ).   In this post, I want to express my opinions on the economy, democracy, and the Chinese government. ） 。在這個後，我要表達我的意見，對經濟，民主和中國政府。

I also want to send a few sentences to Mr. Wahaha: please do not so easily “represent” the Chinese or the Chinese government.我也想送幾句娃哈哈先生：請不要如此輕易地“代表”的中國或中國政府。 I don’t know if you’re an oversea student or overseas Chinese, but regardless of China is strong or small, it doesn’t have anything to do with you having greater face and authority in the face of Westerners.我不知道如果你的海外學生或海外的中國人，但無論是中國強大還是小國，它沒有任何與您有更多的臉和權威在面對西方人。 Furthermore, China’s economic growth is the result of hard work by Chinese citizens, and not the government’s charity; our lives are improving, because these are the returns from our own work, not because of a government or certain political party has bestowed them on us.此外，中國的經濟增長是由於辛勤工作的中國公民，而不是政府的施捨，我們的生活正在改善，因為這些是回報我們自己的工作，不是因為一國政府或某些政黨他們賦予我們的。

Now, we get to a topic that has nothing to do with Western media and being overseas.  Now we get to a topic that has to do only with being “left” or “right”, being a supporter or opponent of the current Chinese government.  This topic should be kept separate from the topic above.現在，我們去的主題無關，與西方新聞媒體和正在海外。現在，我們去的主題做了只有在被“左”或“權利” ，被對手的支持者或目前的中國政府。這個議題應當分開從上述的主題。

Let me start by sending a few sentences to you, Traveler: please do not so easily assume that we hope for a strong China because we need “face”.  I will not speak for Wahaha, but many of us are extremely successful, and do not need to borrow face from anyone.  We can silence ourselves on China tomorrow, and we will not suffer for it.  We can cut ourselves off from China tomorrow, and no one in the United States will force us back.  Here’sa bit of advice for you if you ever come to the West, and are embarrassed by an association with the Chinese: if nothing else, we can always pretend to be Japanese.  No one in the West could possibly know the difference首先，請允許我派遣了幾句你，旅行者：請不要輕易承擔，我們希望有一個強大的中國，因為我們需要“面子” 。我不會說話娃哈哈，但我們許多人非常成功，做不需要借用任何人的臉。我們不能保持沉默的中國自己明天，我們將不會受到它。我們可以減少自己從中國明天，沒有人在美國將迫使我們重新回到。下面一點建議你，如果你到西方，並尷尬協會與中國：如果沒有別的，我們總是可以假裝是日本人。沒有人在西方可能知道的差別

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The vast majority of Chinese favor and support the “opening up and reform” period started in 1978. 絕大多數的中國贊成和支持“改革開放”時期開始於1978年。 But many are also very nostalgic for the Mao era, a time when equality was guaranteed, a time when socialism in China was far more than just a hypothetical. 但是，許多還非常懷念毛澤東時代，當時的平等保障，當時社會主義在中國是遠遠超過只是一個假設。 One simple example is translated below. 一個簡單的例子是翻譯如下。

This article has been spread around numerous Chinese forums, actual origin not clear. 本文已遍布眾多的中國論壇上，實際起源尚不清楚。 ( （ 原贴 原貼 ) ）

I was born in 1954, in a village in Shandong province.我出生在1954年，在一個村莊在山東省。 I have a sister, and our parents are also peasant farmers.我有一個妹妹，和我們的父母也是農民。 I want to start by talking about the prices of agricultural goods, starting with wheat as an example.我想開始談論農產品價格的商品，從小麥作為一個例子。 From 1970 - 1980, the market price for wheat was: 0.35 RMB/shijin ( ed: 0.5 kg ), later growing to 0.35 RMB/shijing.從70年至1980年，市場對小麥的價格是： 0.35元/金（編： 0.5公斤） ，後來增長到0.35元/詩經。 The cost of things didn’t really change, it was very stable during this period.費用的事情並沒有真正改變，這是非常穩定的在此期間。 So the problem I want to discuss is, when a farmer sells a half kilogram of wheat on the market, what can he do with that money?因此，這個問題我想討論是，當一個農民賣半公斤的小麥市場上，怎麼做，他與錢嗎？
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[Update inserted at the end] [更新末尾插入]

The US Fed chairman Bernanke gave some amazing recycled美國聯儲主席伯南克了一些驚人的再生 remarks to the International Monetary Conference講話的國際貨幣會議 on June 3, 2008. 6月3日2008年。 In that speech, he offered some gems of wisdom such as:在演說中，他提出了一些寶石的智慧，如：

In the financial sphere, the three longer-term developments I have identified are linked by the fact that a substantial increase in the net supply of saving in emerging market economies contributed to both the US housing boom and the broader credit boom. The sources of this increase in net saving included rapid growth in high-saving East Asian countries and, outside of China, reduced investment rates in that region; large buildups in foreign exchange reserves in a number of emerging markets; and the enormous increases in the revenues received by exporters of oil and other commodities.在金融領域，這三個長期的發展我已經確定有聯繫的一個事實，即大幅度增加供給的淨儲蓄在新興市場經濟體的貢獻，美國房地產市場的繁榮和更廣泛的信貸繁榮。來源本增加的淨儲蓄包括快速增長，高儲蓄東亞國家之外，中國，降低投資率在該區域;大隆的外匯儲備在一些新興市場和巨大的增加，所得收入由出口商石油和其他商品。 The pressure of these net savings flows led to lower long-term real interest rates around the world, stimulated asset prices (including house prices), and pushed current accounts toward deficit in the industrial countries–notably the United States–that received these flows.的壓力，這些淨流入導致儲蓄下降的長期實際利率在世界各地，促進了資產價格（包括房價） ，並推動對經常帳戶赤字在工業化國家，特別是美國，獲得這些資金。 … The housing boom came to an end because rising prices made housing increasingly unaffordable. ... 在房地產市場的繁榮已經結束，因為物價上漲了越來越買不起住房。 The end of rapid house price increases in turn undermined a basic premise of many adjustable-rate subprime loans –that home price appreciation alone would always generate enough equity to permit the borrower to refinance and thereby avoid ever having to pay the fully-indexed interest rate. 年底房價迅速增加反過來又破壞了一個基本前提，許多浮動利率抵押貸款的房屋價格僅升值將始終產生足夠的股票，允許借款人的貸款，從而避免以往任何時候都不必支付完全掛鉤利率。 When that premise was shown to be false and defaults on subprime mortgages rose sharply, investors quickly backpedaled from mortgage-related securities.當這個前提被證明是錯誤的和拖欠貸款大幅上升，投資者迅速撤回抵押貸款相關的證券。 The reduced availability of mortgage credit caused housing to weaken further.在供應減少抵押貸款造成的住房，以進一步削弱。

As Mike Whitney so nicely summarized for Bernanke: “正如邁克惠特尼很好總結，以便為伯南克： “ It’s all China’s fault.這是中國的過錯。 Really真的 .” “ 。

Whew.噢。 That’sa pretty long-winded way of saying the Chinese are to blame for everything that’s gone wrong in the markets for the last 10 months.這是一個很長篇大論的方式說，中國是造成這一切的毛病市場在過去10個月。

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Today’s今天的 Xinhua article新華社文章 brings to our attention that China’s forex reserves have ballooned to $1.76 trillion as of the end of April.使我們注意到，中國的外匯儲備已膨脹到1760000000000美元截至4月底。 To put this number in perspective: it is about 15% of the US annual economic output.把這個號碼的觀點：這是大約15 ％的美國年度經濟產出。

Before people get carried away, allow me to explain what the forex reserves is not : it is definitely not the government’s money, so there is no sense in talking about the government spending it.在人民得過且過，請允許我解釋什麼是外匯儲備沒有 ：這絕對不是政府的錢，所以沒有意義的談論它的政府開支。 It is also not some kind of surplus money sitting around with no purpose.這也是沒有某種形式的剩餘資金坐在沒有任何目的。 The forex reserves is part of the collateral that backs RMB-denominated debt obligations of China, and that includes all Chinese money and government bonds.在外匯儲備的一部分抵押品的背上人民幣計價的債務的中國，而且包括了所有中國貨幣和政府債券。

According to this Xinhua article, which quotes AFP, which got its information from a “Chinese media source” (got it?), China’s forex reserves increased by $74.5 billion in the month of April, or $100 million per hour.根據這一新華社文章，其中援引法新社，這有其信息從“中國媒體的消息來源” （有嗎？ ） ，中國的外匯儲備增加了七百四十五點〇 〇 〇億美元在4月或1億美元每小時。 (The article and all the English ones that copy it say $10 million, but they all did their math wrong!) （本文和所有的英語那些複製說， 1000萬美元，但他們都沒有他們的數學錯了！ ）

China’s (mainland) forex reserves is followed in size by Japan’s at $1 trillion, Russia’s at $548 billion, India’s at $316 billion, and Taiwan’s at $287 billion.中國的（大陸）外匯儲備其次是在規模，日本在1萬億美元，俄羅斯在五千四百八十〇萬點零萬美元，印度為3.16億美元，與台灣在二千八百七十○點零億美元。 Of course, only Japan is part of the G7 in this group, so it is an exercise for the reader to figure out how much the remaining 6 of the G7 have.當然，只有日本是七國集團在這一組，所以它是行使讀者找出多少剩餘的6七國集團的。

A large forex reserve gives currency stability and can be a defense of a country’s credit-worthiness.大量外匯儲備使貨幣穩定，並可以防禦一個國家的信貸價值。 On the other hand, its rapid increase adds to the inflationary pressure in China.另一方面，它的快速增長增加了通貨膨脹的壓力在中國。 Besides trade surplus and foreign investments, nobody has a good idea for where all this extra money is coming from — from Chinese expats, perhaps?除了貿易順差和外商投資，沒有一個好主意，所有這額外的錢是來自-從中國移居海外，也許？ I know many of them have sent money back as the RMB rises something like 8% a year against the USD.我知道很多人已經退錢派出的人民幣上漲了8 ％ ，像去年對美元。 (On a side note, isn’t it interesting that the shrill rhetoric of Congress to make China revalue the RMB or face punitive tariffs has all but vanished…) （在一個方面說明，是不是很有趣的刺耳言論國會使中國重估人民幣，否則將面臨懲罰性關稅，但已全部消失... ）

Something to ponder, where is this all headed?思考的東西，而這是所有領導？