Fool’s Mountain: Blogging for China愚人节山：为中国博客

In 2002, the GDP of China was 10.2 trillion yuan, and the GDP of the US was 10.6 trillion US dollar.在2002年，中国国内生产总值为10.2万亿元，占国内生产总值的美国一十万六亿美元。 At the year-end exchange rate, China’s GDP was 11.7% of the US’.在今年年底汇率，中国的国内生产总值为11.7 ％的美国' 。 In 2007, the GDP of China was 24.7 trillion yuan, and the GDP of the US was 14.0 trillion US dollar.在2007年，中国国内生产总值为24.7万亿元，占国内生产总值的美国为14.0万亿美元。 At the end-end exchange rate, China’s GDP was 24.0% of the US’.在年底结束的汇率，中国的国内生产总值24.0 ％的美国' 。

If we assume the relative paces of the underlining economic numbers remain the same, China will catch up the US in 2019. 如果我们假定的相对速度的强调经济号码保持不变，中国将赶上美国在2019年。 That’s scenario #1. The key underlining economic numbers are: nominal GDP growth and currency exchange rate. 这情景＃ 1 。突出的关键经济数据有：名义GDP增长率和汇率。 Continue reading »继续阅读»

This post was submitted by JXie.此帖子提交了JXie 。

There is probably only one other issue capable of challenging the Olympics for national attention in China right now: the collapse of the housing market in China, led by Shenzhen. 也许只有一个其他问题能够挑战奥运会的国家的关注中国现在： 崩溃的房地产市场在中国，由深圳。 Home prices in Shenzhen grew very rapidly in recent years (on the order of 50%-100% ), and now appear to be falling just as quickly. 房屋价格在深圳成长非常迅速，近年来（关于秩序的50 ％ -100 ％ ） ，现在看来是属于同样快的速度。

But for some people, it might not be falling fast enough. 但对某些人来说，或许不是下降速度不够快。 Two years ago, Zou Tao organized a campaign to fight rising prices in Shenzhen called “ 两年前，邹逃举办了一个运动，以打击价格上涨在深圳所谓的“ Not Buy House 不买房子 ” (explanation courtesy of ESWN). “ （ 解释礼貌ESWN ） 。 The government gave Zou Tao a firm “suggestion” that such mass campaigns were not welcome. 政府邹逃了坚实的“建议” ，这种大规模运动，不欢迎。 Now, he’s back. 现在，他回来了。 Courtesy of Southern Metropolis, an article on his new campaign ( 礼貌南方都市报，一条关于他的新运动（ 连接 连接 ): ） ：

Zou Tao organized a “Not Buy House” campaign two years ago.邹逃举办了一个“不买屋”运动两年前。 He is now initiating a new campaign: “Housing For Ten Thousand - Group Buying Activity”.他现在是开始一个新系列： “住房10万-集团购物活动” 。 He has already established a web platform at他已经成立了一个网络平台上 www.zoutao.com , and online voting and registration is currently on-going.和网上投票和登记，目前正在进行。 Zou Tao says that he is doing this voluntarily without any compensation.邹逃说，他是自愿这样做没有任何赔偿。 His goal is to use a group-buying model to push down housing prices, and let those without homes find a place to live.他的目标是利用一组购买模式，压低房价，让那些没有家庭找到一个舒适的居住环境。

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Thanks to one our visitors (Traveler, Youzi, 游子), a debate about fundamental issues that divide many Chinese has been brought to our blog (see由于一个访问者（旅行者， Youzi ，游子） ，一个争论的基本问题，许多中国鸿沟已提请我们的博客（见 comment in earlier thread在以前的评论线程 ).   In this post, I want to express my opinions on the economy, democracy, and the Chinese government. ） 。在这个后，我要表达我的意见，对经济，民主和中国政府。

I also want to send a few sentences to Mr. Wahaha: please do not so easily “represent” the Chinese or the Chinese government.我也想送几句娃哈哈先生：请不要如此轻易地“代表”的中国或中国政府。 I don’t know if you’re an oversea student or overseas Chinese, but regardless of China is strong or small, it doesn’t have anything to do with you having greater face and authority in the face of Westerners.我不知道如果你的海外学生或海外的中国人，但无论是中国强大还是小国，它没有任何与您有更多的脸和权威在面对西方人。 Furthermore, China’s economic growth is the result of hard work by Chinese citizens, and not the government’s charity; our lives are improving, because these are the returns from our own work, not because of a government or certain political party has bestowed them on us.此外，中国的经济增长是由于辛勤工作的中国公民，而不是政府的施舍，我们的生活正在改善，因为这些是回报我们自己的工作，不是因为一国政府或某些政党他们赋予我们的。

Now, we get to a topic that has nothing to do with Western media and being overseas.  Now we get to a topic that has to do only with being “left” or “right”, being a supporter or opponent of the current Chinese government.  This topic should be kept separate from the topic above.现在，我们去的主题无关，与西方新闻媒体和正在海外。现在，我们去的主题做了只有在被“左”或“权利” ，被对手的支持者或目前的中国政府。这个议题应当分开从上述的主题。

Let me start by sending a few sentences to you, Traveler: please do not so easily assume that we hope for a strong China because we need “face”.  I will not speak for Wahaha, but many of us are extremely successful, and do not need to borrow face from anyone.  We can silence ourselves on China tomorrow, and we will not suffer for it.  We can cut ourselves off from China tomorrow, and no one in the United States will force us back.  Here’sa bit of advice for you if you ever come to the West, and are embarrassed by an association with the Chinese: if nothing else, we can always pretend to be Japanese.  No one in the West could possibly know the difference首先，请允许我派遣了几句你，旅行者：请不要轻易承担，我们希望有一个强大的中国，因为我们需要“面子” 。我不会说话娃哈哈，但我们许多人非常成功，做不需要借用任何人的脸。我们不能保持沉默的中国自己明天，我们将不会受到它。我们可以减少自己从中国明天，没有人在美国将迫使我们重新回到。下面一点建议你，如果你到西方，并尴尬协会与中国：如果没有别的，我们总是可以假装是日本人。没有人在西方可能知道的差别

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The vast majority of Chinese favor and support the “opening up and reform” period started in 1978. 绝大多数的中国赞成和支持“改革开放”时期开始于1978年。 But many are also very nostalgic for the Mao era, a time when equality was guaranteed, a time when socialism in China was far more than just a hypothetical. 但是，许多还非常怀念毛泽东时代，当时的平等保障，当时社会主义在中国是远远超过只是一个假设。 One simple example is translated below. 一个简单的例子是翻译如下。

This article has been spread around numerous Chinese forums, actual origin not clear. 本文已遍布众多的中国论坛上，实际起源尚不清楚。 ( （ 原贴 原贴 ) ）

I was born in 1954, in a village in Shandong province.我出生在1954年，在一个村庄在山东省。 I have a sister, and our parents are also peasant farmers.我有一个妹妹，和我们的父母也是农民。 I want to start by talking about the prices of agricultural goods, starting with wheat as an example.我想开始谈论农产品价格的商品，从小麦作为一个例子。 From 1970 - 1980, the market price for wheat was: 0.35 RMB/shijin ( ed: 0.5 kg ), later growing to 0.35 RMB/shijing.从70年至1980年，市场对小麦的价格是： 0.35元/金（编： 0.5公斤） ，后来增长到0.35元/诗经。 The cost of things didn’t really change, it was very stable during this period.费用的事情并没有真正改变，这是非常稳定的在此期间。 So the problem I want to discuss is, when a farmer sells a half kilogram of wheat on the market, what can he do with that money?因此，这个问题我想讨论是，当一个农民卖半公斤的小麦市场上，怎么做，他与钱吗？
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[Update inserted at the end] [更新末尾插入]

The US Fed chairman Bernanke gave some amazing recycled美国联储主席伯南克了一些惊人的再生 remarks to the International Monetary Conference讲话的国际货币会议 on June 3, 2008. 6月3日2008年。 In that speech, he offered some gems of wisdom such as:在演说中，他提出了一些宝石的智慧，如：

In the financial sphere, the three longer-term developments I have identified are linked by the fact that a substantial increase in the net supply of saving in emerging market economies contributed to both the US housing boom and the broader credit boom. The sources of this increase in net saving included rapid growth in high-saving East Asian countries and, outside of China, reduced investment rates in that region; large buildups in foreign exchange reserves in a number of emerging markets; and the enormous increases in the revenues received by exporters of oil and other commodities.在金融领域，这三个长期的发展我已经确定有联系的一个事实，即大幅度增加供给的净储蓄在新兴市场经济体的贡献，美国房地产市场的繁荣和更广泛的信贷繁荣。来源本增加的净储蓄包括快速增长，高储蓄东亚国家之外，中国，降低投资率在该区域;大隆的外汇储备在一些新兴市场和巨大的增加，所得收入由出口商石油和其他商品。 The pressure of these net savings flows led to lower long-term real interest rates around the world, stimulated asset prices (including house prices), and pushed current accounts toward deficit in the industrial countries–notably the United States–that received these flows.的压力，这些净流入导致储蓄下降的长期实际利率在世界各地，促进了资产价格（包括房价） ，并推动对经常帐户赤字在工业化国家，特别是美国，获得这些资金。 … The housing boom came to an end because rising prices made housing increasingly unaffordable. ... 在房地产市场的繁荣已经结束，因为物价上涨了越来越买不起住房。 The end of rapid house price increases in turn undermined a basic premise of many adjustable-rate subprime loans –that home price appreciation alone would always generate enough equity to permit the borrower to refinance and thereby avoid ever having to pay the fully-indexed interest rate. 年底房价迅速增加反过来又破坏了一个基本前提，许多浮动利率抵押贷款的房屋价格仅升值将始终产生足够的股票，允许借款人的贷款，从而避免以往任何时候都不必支付完全挂钩利率。 When that premise was shown to be false and defaults on subprime mortgages rose sharply, investors quickly backpedaled from mortgage-related securities.当这个前提被证明是错误的和拖欠贷款大幅上升，投资者迅速撤回抵押贷款相关的证券。 The reduced availability of mortgage credit caused housing to weaken further.在供应减少抵押贷款造成的住房，以进一步削弱。

As Mike Whitney so nicely summarized for Bernanke: “正如迈克惠特尼很好总结，以便为伯南克： “ It’s all China’s fault.这是中国的过错。 Really真的 .” “ 。

Whew.噢。 That’sa pretty long-winded way of saying the Chinese are to blame for everything that’s gone wrong in the markets for the last 10 months.这是一个很长篇大论的方式说，中国是造成这一切的毛病市场在过去10个月。

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Today’s今天的 Xinhua article新华社文章 brings to our attention that China’s forex reserves have ballooned to $1.76 trillion as of the end of April.使我们注意到，中国的外汇储备已膨胀到一万七千六百点零零亿美元截至4月底。 To put this number in perspective: it is about 15% of the US annual economic output.把这个号码的观点：这是大约15 ％的美国年度经济产出。

Before people get carried away, allow me to explain what the forex reserves is not : it is definitely not the government’s money, so there is no sense in talking about the government spending it.在人民得过且过，请允许我解释什么是外汇储备没有 ：这绝对不是政府的钱，所以没有意义的谈论它的政府开支。 It is also not some kind of surplus money sitting around with no purpose.这也是没有某种形式的剩余资金坐在没有任何目的。 The forex reserves is part of the collateral that backs RMB-denominated debt obligations of China, and that includes all Chinese money and government bonds.在外汇储备的一部分抵押品的背上人民币计价的债务的中国，而且包括了所有中国货币和政府债券。

According to this Xinhua article, which quotes AFP, which got its information from a “Chinese media source” (got it?), China’s forex reserves increased by $74.5 billion in the month of April, or $100 million per hour.根据这一新华社文章，其中援引法新社，这有其信息从“中国媒体的消息来源” （有吗？ ） ，中国的外汇储备增加了七百四十五点〇 〇 〇亿美元在4月或1亿美元每小时。 (The article and all the English ones that copy it say $10 million, but they all did their math wrong!) （本文和所有的英语那些复制说， 1000万美元，但他们都没有他们的数学错了！ ）

China’s (mainland) forex reserves is followed in size by Japan’s at $1 trillion, Russia’s at $548 billion, India’s at $316 billion, and Taiwan’s at $287 billion.中国的（大陆）外汇储备其次是在规模，日本在1万亿美元，俄罗斯在五千四百八十万点零万美元，印度为3.16亿美元，与台湾在二千八百七十〇点零零亿美元。 Of course, only Japan is part of the G7 in this group, so it is an exercise for the reader to figure out how much the remaining 6 of the G7 have.当然，只有日本是七国集团在这一组，所以它是行使读者找出多少剩余的6七国集团的。

A large forex reserve gives currency stability and can be a defense of a country’s credit-worthiness.大量外汇储备使货币稳定，并可以防御一个国家的信贷价值。 On the other hand, its rapid increase adds to the inflationary pressure in China.另一方面，它的快速增长增加了通货膨胀的压力在中国。 Besides trade surplus and foreign investments, nobody has a good idea for where all this extra money is coming from — from Chinese expats, perhaps?除了贸易顺差和外商投资，没有一个好主意，所有这额外的钱是来自-从中国移居海外，也许？ I know many of them have sent money back as the RMB rises something like 8% a year against the USD.我知道很多人已经退钱派出的人民币上涨了8 ％ ，像去年对美元。 (On a side note, isn’t it interesting that the shrill rhetoric of Congress to make China revalue the RMB or face punitive tariffs has all but vanished…) （在一个方面说明，是不是很有趣的刺耳言论国会使中国重估人民币，否则将面临惩罚性关税，但已全部消失... ）

Something to ponder, where is this all headed?思考的东西，而这是所有领导？